Peter Smith
⬤ The memory market took off in late 2025, with DRAM and NAND prices climbing much faster than previous cycles. Counterpoint Research data shows memory prices jumped 40–75% in Q4 2025, with more increases coming in early 2026. The trend shows consistent, quarter-over-quarter gains across multiple memory types rather than a temporary spike.
⬤ DRAM led the charge. A 64GB RDIMM module went from around $255 in Q3 2025 to roughly $450 in Q4 2025—a 75% jump in just three months. Projections show another 40–50% increase in Q1 2026 and an additional 20% in Q2 2026, pushing prices near $700 by March 2026. This puts current DRAM pricing above previous peaks and shows strong pricing power for suppliers making high-end server memory.
⬤ NAND prices also rose significantly, though slightly slower. Data shows NAND gained 25–50% in Q4 2025, followed by sequential 20% increases into the first half of 2026. Rising memory costs are changing hardware economics, as memory now takes up a bigger slice of total system costs for servers, data centers, and advanced consumer devices. Manufacturers are focusing on higher-margin products, which tightens supply for older memory tech and keeps prices climbing.
⬤ Industry spending is increasing, but supply can't keep up with demand. DRAM production will grow in 2026, but not fast enough to close the gap created by rapid AI infrastructure and server expansion. The current cycle is being called a "hyper-bull" phase that outpaces past memory booms.
Peter Smith
