HSBC Projects Nearly $500B in OpenAI Operating Losses Through 2030

⬤ OpenAI is staring down massive financial pressure as AI development costs spiral upward. New HSBC analysis reported by the Financial Times shows the company could hit nearly $500 billion in cumulative operating losses by 2030. The numbers reveal just how expensive cutting-edge AI has become, especially under OpenAI's revenue-sharing deal with Microsoft (MSFT).

⬤ The Financial Times data shows a stark gap between what OpenAI expects to earn and what it'll actually spend. By 2029, revenue could hit $153.79 billion, but the cost breakdown tells a different story: $75.36 billion in COGS, $140.71 billion in R&D, and $15.38 billion in SG&A. Add in Microsoft's $30.76 billion revenue cut, and you're looking at a $108.42 billion operating loss for that year alone.

⬤ HSBC points to compute costs as the main culprit, spread across COGS and R&D. Microsoft's 20% revenue share under the current partnership only adds to the burden. While revenue projections climb steadily through the decade, costs are rising even faster thanks to increasingly complex model training and massive infrastructure buildouts.

⬤ This isn't just OpenAI's problem. Microsoft, Nvidia, Alphabet, and Amazon are all pouring unprecedented sums into data centers, but nobody really knows when these investments will pay off. The projected losses force uncomfortable questions about monetization strategies and whether the AI boom can actually sustain itself financially as technology advances faster than cost efficiencies materialize.