Eseandre Mordi
⬤ Nvidia (NVDA) and other AI heavyweights are at the center of buzz around new AGI forecast charts making the rounds online. The visualizations, built using Banana 2, show how experts across the sector think artificial general intelligence could land anywhere between 2026 and 2050. These charts plot probability curves from big names in AI—Elon Musk, Sam Altman, Demis Hassabis, Jensen Huang, Geoffrey Hinton, Ben Goertzel, Shane Legg, Yann LeCun, Mark Zuckerberg, and Andrew Ng.
⬤ Here's the thing—several heavy hitters believe AGI could be here before 2030. Musk's numbers point to a solid shot around 2026, Hassabis is looking at the late 2020s through 2030, and Altman thinks it might drop before the decade wraps up. But not everyone's that bullish: LeCun doesn't see it happening until the late 2030s or later, while Ng's window stretches toward 2040–2050. Nvidia keeps popping up in these conversations because the AI models driving this stuff—and the hardware running them—are basically what determines whether these timelines actually hold up.
⬤ The charts really show how split people are—some experts have steep probability jumps in the next few years, others are taking it slow. Jensen Huang's curve lines up with expectations that AI systems could blow past major performance markers around 2028–2029, which tracks with what Nvidia's been pushing on high-performance compute. Meanwhile, Hinton's estimates cover way more ground, highlighting just how many scientific and engineering question marks are still hanging over the jump from advanced machine intelligence to real general capability.
The spread of projected arrival dates illustrates both the accelerating momentum behind AI development and the substantial uncertainty that still surrounds its ultimate evolution.
⬤ These forecasts actually matter because Nvidia, the major AI labs, and big tech platforms are building the computational backbone that decides how fast AGI becomes real. The range of arrival dates shows both how fast AI development is moving and how much nobody really knows about where this all ends up. As AI gets more capable and everyone needs more compute, the whole debate over AGI timelines keeps shaping expectations, planning, and bigger conversations about AI's future.
Eseandre Mordi
